Analysis of the Evolution of the Status of ”The Belt and Road” in the World Trade Dependence Network

ABSTRACT

Examining the Interdependence in the international trade pattern from the perspective of linkage and development is conducive to grasping and optimizing “the Belt and Road” co-construction strategy from the overall and dynamic perspective.By constructing the trade dependence network of 183 countries and the multiple period difference-in-differences model, this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution law of the status along “the Belt and Road,” and finds that the world trade dependence network shows an orderly and multi-polar trend of change, and the trade status of “the Belt and Road” has gradually increased in recent years; The intra-regional compactness index of participating countries shows a more obvious stratification phenomenon and strong group attributes; The distribution of the core degree of the participating countries shows the obvious structural characteristics of “core-middle-edge;” The effective implementation of “the Belt and Road” Initiative is a significant reason for the increased dependence of participating countries. The above-mentioned research organically combines the practice of “the Belt and Road” construction with the changes in the world trade dependence network, and provides a possible theory and policy reference for more effectively promoting the construction of “the Belt and Road” from the perspective of relationship.

KEYWORDS:

• Trade dependence network
• centrality
• cohesion subgroups
• core-edge structure
• multiple period difference-in-differences model

JEL CODE:

• F10

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Correction Statement

This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

Additional information

Funding

This work is supported by NSSF (National Social Science Foundation) Project [Project No. 18ZDA070] and NNSFC (National Natural Science Foundation of China) Project [Project No. 71373249].