Structural Change Features and Influencing Factors of China’s Carbon Price

ABSTRACT

The existence of structural change features can lead to the failure of traditional econometric methods. This research uses the Bai-Perron test to diagnose the structural change point of the price series in China’s pilot carbon market. It uses an impulse response function to analyze the interaction between carbon prices and energy prices, stock price indices, power industry index, and similar asset prices. The results show structural change points in all five carbon markets during the operation period, and the timing of these structural change points relates to an economic situation and compliance period. In addition, the impact mechanisms of the stock price index, similar asset price, and power industry index on the price of China’s pilot carbon market change significantly before and after the structural change points, but the impact of energy price does not change except for the Hubei carbon market.

KEYWORDS:

• Carbon market price
• structural change features
• Bai-Perron test
• impulse response

JEL:

• G10
• Q49
• Q50

Acknowledgment

We are grateful for helpful support and suggestions from Professor Chun-Ping Chang. We are responsible for any errors and omissions.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

The work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [71871030]; National Social Science Foundation of China [22BYJ018]; Hunan Provincial Philosophy and Social Science Foundation of China [20YBA175] and the Scientific Research Project of Hunan Provincial Education Department of China (22A0201).