Predictors of New Airway Obstruction – An 11 Year’s Population-Based Follow-Up Study

Abstract

In the present study we aimed to investigate the incidence and predictors of spirometry based airway obstruction in a representative population-based sample. Altogether 3,863 subjects, 1,651 males and 2,212 females aged ≥30 years had normal spirometry in year 2000. Fifty-three percent of them were never and 23% current smokers. A re-spirometry was performed 11 years later. Several characteristics, such as level of education, use of alcohol, physical activity, diet using Alternate healthy eating (AHEI) index, body mass index, circumwaist, sensitive C reactive protein (CRP) and cotinine of the laboratory values and co-morbidities including asthma, allergic rhinitis, sleep apnoea and chronic bronchitis, as potential risk factors for airway obstruction were evaluated. Using forced expiratory volume in one second/ forced vital capacity below the lower limit of normal, we observed 124 new cases of airway obstruction showing a cumulative 11-year incidence of 3.2% and corresponding to an incidence rate of 5.6/1,000 per year (PY). The incidence rate was higher in men than in women (6.3/1,000 PY vs. 5.0/1,000 PY, respectively). The strongest risk factors were current smoking (Odds ratio [OR] 2.5) and previously diagnosed asthma (OR 2.1). Sensitive CRP associated with the increased risk and high AHEI index with the decreased risk of airway obstruction. Using the similar study approach our findings on the incidence of airway obstruction are in line with the previously published figures in Europe. We were able to confirm the recent findings on the protective effect of healthy diet.

Keywords:

• COPD
• airway obstruction
• spirometry
• incidence
• healthy diet