Estimating the Relative Impact of Early-Life Infection Exposure on Later-Life Tuberculosis Outcomes in a Canadian Sample

Abstract

This article seeks to elucidate effects of early-life influences on later-life tuberculosis outcomes using a dynamic computer simulation model. To illustrate the value of such a model, three research questions are considered: 1) If we implemented an intervention capable of reducing infection rates to varying degrees, what would the impact be on tuberculosis prevalence by age? 2) If there were a temporary increase in the rate of infection, what would the impact be on tuberculosis outcomes for the population? 3) If a fixed number of recently infected individuals were targeted for prophylactic treatment, who should be chosen to maximize impact?

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support received for this work from the Saskatchewan Health Research Program (RAPID Team Grant), and of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC Discovery Grant RGPIN-327290-20). They wish to express gratitude to the Saskatchewan Lung Association for providing access to historic records from the Saskatchewan Anti-Tuberculosis League, and to students Jing Bai and Wenyi An, who aided in the scanning of these records. N.D.O. and A.M. contributed equally to this work. The effort of K.H.L. was supported by Award Number KL2RR025746 from the National Center for Research Resources. The content of this publication is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Center for Research Resources or the National Institutes of Health.