Age 19-30 Union Formation Trajectories Across the Past 30 Years Within the U.S.: Delineating Heterogeneity in Trajectories and its Historical and Sociodemographic Variation

Abstract

Using data from Monitoring the Future Study that include 31 cohorts of high school seniors (1976 to 2006) who were followed from ages 19–30, we identified heterogeneity in union formation trajectories and its covariates (cohort, sex, race/ethnicity, and parental education). We identified nine trajectories with approximately 40% following a single to married sequence (with variation in the timing of the sequence), about 35% remaining single, and the remaining respondents showing considerable heterogeneity. Recent cohorts were more likely to remain single and experience more transitions, women made earlier transitions, and Black respondents were less likely to follow pathways entailing marriage.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data Availability Statement

De-identified panel data from the Monitoring the Future Study are available through the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research, University of Michigan: https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/studies/37072.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/15427609.2024.2366110

Additional information

Funding

This research was supported by research grants from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism [R01AA026861] to J. Jager and K. Keyes and the National Institute of Drug Abuse [R01 DA001411] to R. Miech and L. Johnston, and [R01DA016575] to M.E. Patrick, J. E. Schulenberg and L. Johnston). The study sponsors had no role in the study design, collection, analysis, or interpretation of the data, writing of the manuscript, or the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the study sponsor.