Piecewise Support Vector Machine Model for Short-Term Wind-power Prediction

Abstract

Based on the characteristics of the power curves of wind turbine generator systems and the principles of the support vector machine (SVM), a piecewise support vector machine (PSVM) model is proposed in this article to improve the precision of short-term wind-power prediction systems. The operation data from a wind farm in north China are used to verify the proposed model, and the average mean error and root mean squared error of the PSVM model are 4.76% and 68.83 kW less than that of an SVM model respectively. Results of parameter optimization confirm the robustness of the PSVM model.

Keywords:

• Wind-power prediction
• Support vector machine
• Piecewise support vector machine

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The authors gratefully acknowledge the support from Ministry of Science and Technology of China for the “863” Program of China: Wind Power Prediction Method Study and System Development (2007AA05Z428).The authors are also grateful for the valuable advice from the reviewers of both the International Journal of Green Energy and IGEC-IV.