Engaged or Disengaged? Examining the Relationship Between Electoral Ambivalence and Indicators of Political Engagement in the 2012 U.S. Election

ABSTRACT

This study uses uncertainty theories to examine the relationship between presidential electoral ambivalence and three political belief variables: internal efficacy, skepticism, and apathy. We propose that the relationship between ambivalence, which is an indicator of uncertainty, and information-seeking intentions should be mediated by our political belief variables. Our proposed model suggests that presidential electoral ambivalence is characteristic of a disengaged citizenry, with ambivalence correlating with lower levels of internal efficacy and skepticism in a cross-sectional analysis. We also found ambivalence associated with higher levels of apathy in this same analysis. Moreover, we found an over-time indirect effect of ambivalence on information seeking through internal efficacy.

Notes

¹ We ran a confirmatory factor analysis on our belief variables—efficacy, skepticism, apathy, and cynicism, which is commonly used with our three belief variables—to confirm that they are distinct constructs. A model with covaried latent factors, with each latent factor comprised of three indicators, demonstrated acceptable fit, suggesting these are four distinct factors (comparative fit index = 0.964, root mean square error of approximation = 0.074, CI [0.061, 0.087]).

² Indirect effects of the cross-sectional and over-time analysis are not included in Figure 2 or Figure 3. We just report these results in text. The models include the following control variables: age, education, income, gender, ethnicity, political ideology, cynicism, and political interest.