Understanding the Random Effect on Victimization Distributions: A Statistical Analysis of Random Repeat Victimizations

Abstract

The notion of repeat victimization has been a growing interest of crime prevention policies and portrayed as a practical solution to prevent crimes. One stochastic characteristic of repeat victimization, however, has not been fully considered in understanding the distribution of victimizations: random repeat victimization, which indicates a concentration of victimizations solely by chance. This lack of consideration has resulted in misleading interpretations of victimization data and erroneous arguments. Through simulating the 2008–2009 British Crime Survey and employing mathematical demonstrations, this study investigates the statistical characteristics of random repeat victimization and reviews the arguments of previous studies on repeat victimization.

Keywords:

• repeat victimization
• rate of repeat victimization
• time-windows effect
• time course of repeat victimization
• crime concentration
• random repeats

Notes

1. Incident Rate = number of incidents (victimizations) / number of individuals (people).

2. Rate of repeat victimization = the percentage of incidents that were second, third, fourth, or subsequent victimizations against the same person in a given period (Farrell & Pease, 2001).

3. An incident rate is the number of incidents standardized only by the population; therefore, the longer observation results in more observed incidents and, therefore, raises the corresponding incident rate.