Analysis on Evolution of Urban Energy System Structure Based on Information Entropy

Abstract

Diversity of urban energy system structure (UESS) was analyzed based on information entropy. To find out the evolution law of UESS and thus provide principles to coordinate and optimize the UESS, the correlative relationship model between UESS and its influencing factors can be developed using the partial least square (PLS) regression. Here we took Xiamen City as an example to analyze the evolution tendency and the influencing factors of diversity of energy supply structure (ESS) and energy demand structure (EDS). The results showed that, on the whole, the diversity of ESS in Xiamen was rising over time as a logistic curve from 1996 to 2003, with reducing speed from 1999 though. While in the period, EDS in Xiamen City didn't improve efficiently. Urbanization level, population, gross domestic product (GDP), and the third industrial structure had significantly affected ESS. Meanwhile, number of vehicles, GDP, population, per capita disposable income, and energy eco-efficiency had obvious influences on EDS. As for Xiamen City, the improvement of diversity of EDS should be especially emphasized.

Keywords:

• diversity
• energy demand structure
• energy supply structure
• information entropy
• partial least square regression
• Xiamen City

Acknowledgments

This work is supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Grant number 2005CB724204) and National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars (50625926).

Notes

^a Data from Xiamen Statistic Bureau, 1997–2004; environmental quality assessment report in Xiamen from 1996 to 2003; urban gas-fired development planning in Xiamen (2004).

^a Data from Xiamen Statistic Bureau, 1997–2004; environmental quality assessment report in Xiamen from 1996 to 2003; urban gas-fired development planning in Xiamen (2004).

^a Coeff. (a): Coefficients scaled and centered.

^b Coeff. (b): Coefficients unscaled.