The Estimation of the Firm Hydroelectric Potential of the Çoruh Basin, Turkey

Abstract

The main aim of this study is to estimate firm hydroelectric potential of Çoruh Basin, which is one of the most picturesque, yet significantly underdeveloped, regions of Turkey. For this purpose, the most suitable multivariate stochastic model for daily streamflow observations of nine stations located in the basin must first be obtained. Then, using the best model, a total of 100 synthetic streamflow series, each having the same length with the historical time series, are generated. Finally, upper and lower limits of firm hydroelectric potential of Çoruh Basin are calculated within 95% confidence intervals.

Keywords:

• Çoruh Basin
• firm hydroelectric potential
• flow duration curves
• multivariate AR and ARMA models
• streamflow