Short-term wind speed prediction based on improved PSO algorithm optimized EM-ELM

ABSTRACT

Short-term wind speed prediction is of importance for power grids. It can mitigate the disadvantageous impacts of wind farms on power systems and enhance the competitiveness of wind power in electricity markets. A short-term wind speed prediction model is proposed. Many useless neurons of incremental extreme learning machine have little influences on the final output, at the same time, reduce the efficiency of the algorithm. In order to solve this problem, based on error minimized extreme learning machine, an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed to decrease the number of useless neurons, achieve the goal of reducing the network complexity and improving the efficiency of the algorithm. The stability and convergence of the algorithm are proved. The actual short-term wind speed time series is used as the research object. Multistep prediction simulation of short-term wind speed is performed out. Compared with the other prediction models, the simulation results show that the prediction model proposed in this paper reduces the training time of the model and decreases the number of hidden layer nodes. The prediction model has higher prediction accuracy and reliability, meanwhile improve the prediction performance indicators.

KEYWORDS:

• Error minimized extreme learning machine
• improved particle swarm optimization algorithm
• incremental extreme learning machine
• prediction
• short-term wind speed

Acknowledgments

This work is partially supported by the Science Research Project of Liaoning Education Department (Grant No. LGD2016009) and Natural Science Foundation of Liaoning Province (Grant No. 20170540686).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the the Science Research Project of Liaoning Education Department [LGD2016009];