Long term electricity load forecasting based on regional load model using optimization techniques: A case study

ABSTRACT

Long-term load forecasting is a significant and complex topic in electric distribution systems. Forecasters is need to proper forecasting methodologies and smart solutions to minimize complexity. In this study, regional long-term load forecasting is presented, for Sivas province of Turkey, taking into account the development plan of the municipality, and subscriber profiles. Firstly, the municipality development plan is divided into regions of similar load characteristics. The load demand values of each region are defined mathematically using the S curve. The optimal parameter values of the S curve are calculated using meta-heuristic methods such as Genetic Algorithm (GA), Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) and Harris Hawk Optimization (HHO). The obtained results are compared with the results of the econometrics-based (top-to-bottom) approach and actual consumer projection. The consumption values between 2004 and 2014 are used for parameter estimation of S curves. The consumption values obtained as the result of analysis the period between 2015 and 2018 were selected as test data. The result is shown that S curve-based regional demand forecast demonstrated more convenient results using the HHO algorithm with statistical values of RE = 1.3362, MAE = 1.5145, RMSE = 1.80385 and STD = 2.122 can be applied to the forecast regional electricity consumption. The proposed method is simple and can be easily applied to forecast the total consumption of the power load for a province any load forecasting region. The presented approach can be used to define the future projections of electricity distribution systems and determine the correct investment strategies.

KEYWORDS:

• Electrical energy demand forecasting
• s curve
• genetic algorithm (ga)
• Harris hawk optimization (hho)
• gray wolf optimization (gwo)

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the editor-in-chief and the anonymous referees for their valuable suggestions and useful comments that improved the paper content substantially. This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Mustafa Şeker

Dr. Mustafa Şeker  received the B.S. degrees in Electrical and Electronics engineering from the University of Sivas Cumhuriyet, Turkey, 2006 and M.S. degrees in Electrical and Electronics from the University of Erciyes, Turkey, in 2010, and the Ph.D. degree in Electrical and Electronics engineering from Inonu University, Turkey, 2017.From 2007 to 2014, he was worked as a lecturer in Cumhuriyet University, Divrigi Nuri Demirag Vocationaly High School. From 2014 to 2017, she worked on different electrical planning and infrastructure projects. Between 2018-2020, he has been as Assistant Professor in Department of Computer Technology and Information Systems, Burdur Mehmet Akif Ersoy University. Since March 2020, He is working in Sivas Cumhuriyet University, Hafik Kamer Ornek Vocational School of Higher Education, Department of Transportation Services, Rail Systems Management Program, Sivas/Turkey as Assistant Professor. His research interest includes the development of non-linear load characteristics, Power System Quality and modelling of the electrical systems.