Assessing the economic and technical efficacy of grid-connected photovoltaic systems through a combination of mathematical and deep learning models with experimental validation: A case study

ABSTRACT

The current study presents a techno-economic technique and modeling to evaluate the productivity of a 1.25 kW photovoltaic grid-connected (GCPV) system. The method used four key factor indicators: yield, and capacity factors, also payback period and cost of energy. MATLAB software was used to analyze secondly meteorological data and create a model for the GCPV. Also, the GCPV has been installed, tested, and data collected in Sohar, Oman. The data revealed that the daily average irradiation is 6.23 kWh/m².day in the studied location. The numerical and experimental results of the assessment indicated that the investment in GCPV technology in this site is very encouraging, with a yield factor of 1710 and 1836 kWh/kWp and a capacity factor of 19.37% and 20.74%, respectively. Also, it is found that 8.25 years is the payback period. Additionally, the numerical and experimental results show 0.063 and 0.047 USD/kWh cost of energy, respectively. Also, four predictive models based on deep learning utilizing Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Time Lag Recurrent Network (TLRN) were developed to forecast GCPV current performance with irradiance, and temperature as input data. FRNN-2 and FRNN-3 showed the highest performance for prediction models due to their lower MSE (0.0018–0.0037), indicating better accuracy in comparison to experimental results. This research yields important technical and financial data for anyone looking to invest in GCPV technology in Oman.

KEYWORDS:

• Photovoltaic
• deep learning
• grid-connected PV
• capacity factor
• yield factor

Acknowledgements

“The research leading to these results has received Research Project Grant Funding from Sohar University SUSF-2018-01 and the Research Council of the Sultanate of Oman, Research Grant Agreement No. ORG SU EI 11 010.”

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Additional information

Funding

The work was supported by the The Research Council of Oman [ORG SU EI 11 010].

Notes on contributors

Hussein A. Kazem

Hussein A. Kazem holds a BSc and MSc in electrical engineering from the University of Technology (UOT), Baghdad-Iraq, and a PhD from Newcastle University (NCL), United Kingdom. His academic journey began in 1995 at Al-Mamon College, and in 1996 he assumed the role of Assistant Lecturer at UOT. From 1997 to 2002, he served as a Lecturer and Program Coordinator at the Faculty of Engineering, Al Tahady University, Libya. Since 2002, Hussein has been an Assistant and subsequently an Associate Professor and a Professor at Sohar University, Oman. He also holds the position of an academic visiting member of staff at Newcastle University, United Kingdom, and is a visiting scientist at the National University of Malaysia. With a dedicated focus on academics and research spanning over 25 years, Hussein is actively engaged with prestigious professional organizations and engineering societies. He serves as a member, researcher, editor, and reviewer for esteemed institutions such as IEEE, IET, Elsevier, Springer, Wiley, MDPI, Hindawi, EDP science, IAENG, WREN, Nature, and WSEAS. Hussein has organized and participated in numerous conferences, symposiums, and workshops. His scholarly contributions include more than 200 published papers in scientific journals and conferences, 50 invited talks, eight chapters, and seven books. Recognizing his exceptional research, Hussein has been honored with the Sohar University Vice-Chancellor Award for Research, as well as national and international accolades such as the ”Golden Medal Award” at Pecipta'13 in Malaysia, ”The Outstanding Renewable Energy Lab Award” at the World Renewable Energy Congress 2014 in London, United Kingdom, ”Renewable & Sustainable Energy Pioneer Award” at the World Renewable Energy Congress 2016 in Jakarta, Indonesia, and ”Special Award of Excellence in Renewable Energy Research” at the World Renewable Energy Congress 2018 in Kingston, United Kingdom. In addition, he has received the IEEE Best Paper Award in 2021 and holds two patents as an inventor and co-inventor. Hussein has successfully supervised and guided the graduation of more than 50 BSc, 8 MSc, and 3 PhD students. Throughout his career, Dr. Hussein has led and contributed to several research projects, including four ORG projects, one Sustainable Future research grant, and one FURAP research project. These endeavors, funded by The Research Council of Oman (TRC), showcase his expertise as a Principal Investigator and Co-Investigator. Currently, he is actively involved in ongoing research grants. His research interests revolve around Photovoltaic, solar thermal, PV/T, Renewable Energy, Power Electronics, Power Quality, and Electrical Power Systems. Notably, Hussein serves as the chairman of the Renewable Energy & Sustainable Technology Research Group and leads the Generation & Storage task force in the Oman Renewable Energy Strategic Program. Furthermore, he holds the position of Associate Editor-in-Chief for the journal of Renewable Energy & Environmental Sustainability.