Estimation of Expected Monetary Values of Selected Oil Fields

As there is uncertainty in estimates of capital, reserves, and net present value in the petroleum industry; risk analysis is the key point for an oil company. It is easy to make decisions after quantifying the uncertainty with ranges of possible values and associated probabilities. Instead of deterministic models, probabilistic evaluations give a wide range of outcomes for decision making. Monte Carlo Simulation is a tool that presents different scenarios and yields probability and value relationships in reserve evaluations. In this study, an estimation of the reserves of two Turkish oil fields will be performed by using Monte Carlo Simulation and method of moments. Field data will be evaluated in two different programs. One of them is a Petroleum Risk Assessment program named CashPot, which is designed to assist in determining the economic feasibility of oil and gas exploration and development projects, and the other one is the Risk Analysis and Decision Making Program sponsored by U.S. Department of Energy. In the present work, predictions were made about how statistical distribution and descriptive statistics of porosity, thickness, area, water saturation, recovery factor, and oil formation volume factor affect the simulated original oil in place (OOIP) values. The current work presents the case of two different oil fields in Turkey. It was found that both techniques produce similar results for 95%. The difference between estimated values increases as percentages decrease from 50% and 5% probability.

Keywords:

• formation volume factor
• original oil in place
• oil field
• Monte Carlo