Forecasting the Energy Consumption of China by the Grey Prediction Model

Abstract

Energy consumption has important significance for every country in the world. To successfully predict the future energy consumption by a mathematical method is very important for relevant scientific study. In this article, China, the rising power of the world and one of the biggest energy consumption countries, is significantly taken as the research target for grey theory prediction. According to the actual energy consumption statistics of China from 1998 to 2006, this article established the grey model GM(1,1) for the total energy, coal energy and clean energy consumption of China, respectively, with a corresponding precision check-up thereafter. The results show the three prediction models are all in the first precision level, which is suitable for simulating and forecasting the original data sequences of the energy consumption characterized by grey type. By comparing the results of the three models, all three energy consumption types are in the trending upward, but clean energy consumption is especially getting the upper hand.

Keywords:

• China
• energy consumption
• forecasting
• GM(1,1) model
• grey theory