Energy security through a framework of country risks and vulnerabilities

ABSTRACT

Based on a review of the published energy balances of 128 countries, this article attempts to understand the emerging energy security concerns globally. Adopting a broad view of energy security that goes beyond the conventional concern that is confined to imported energy, energy security is seen through various lenses that cover energy poverty and environmental implications as well as economic dependence on energy. Rather than seek to categorize countries on the basis of the nature and extent of their energy risks and vulnerabilities, the attempt here is to highlight the divergent issues faced by different countries while also highlighting the potential for inter-country links with similar countries as well as with dissimilar but related countries.

KEYWORDS:

• Energy imports
• energy poverty
• energy risks
• energy security
• energy vulnerabilities

Acknowledgmnts

The author acknowledges the input of Devika Sharma, Deepti Mahajan, and Ligia Noronha by way of constructive feedback. The author is also grateful to M K Bineesan, without whose data processing support the analysis would not have been possible.

Notes

¹ This framework is similar to the one adopted in climate change analysis. Vulnerability is the degree systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts. The concept of risk, which combines the magnitude of the impact with the probability of its occurrence, captures uncertainty in the underlying process, exposure, impacts, and adaptation (Schneider et al., 2007).

² The formula employed is (Country’s per capita electricity consumption-Global per capita electricity consumption)×Country’s population.

³ Measuring vulnerability in the context of energy is not new, but these are usually confined to oil importers (such as the Oil Vulnerability Index (OPVI) in Gupta [2008]) or are specific to a certain risk (such as oil price volatility in the case of the Oil Price Vulnerability Index,detailed in UNDP [2007], which had its genesis in an OPVI concept in TERI [2007]). Other attempts are regional (as in the case of an assessment of Europe’s vulnerability to energy crises by the WEC [2008])

⁴ Energy balances (2006) of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries compiled by the International Energy Agency, International Financial Statistics of the International Monetary Fund, International Country Risk Guide of the Political Risk Services Group.

⁵ Unmet demand is also important because it represents areas for potentially changing energy trajectories by proactively adopting more sustainable energy pathways.

⁶ These factors lie largely within national and sub-national domains and will be covered in the country case studies.

⁷ Some of these impacts will be captured in the fuel-specific risk analysis. In this analysis thus far, for purposes of simplicity, dependence on the “dirtier” fossil fuels—coal and oil—is taken as representative of environmentally damaging energy use.

Additional information

Funding

The author is grateful to the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for funding support for this study undertaken by the author while at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI).