A new five-parameter logistic model for describing the evolution of energy consumption

ABSTRACT

The four-parameter logistic model is commonly used to describe sigmoidal growth processes. However, the four-parameter logistic model is a symmetrical model. The historical data on energy consumption are not symmetrical. Thus, the four-parameter logistic model cannot accurately describe the evolution of energy consumption. In this article, a new five-parameter logistic model has been proposed. The new model is extended from the four-parameter logistic model by the addition of an extra parameter. Some properties of the new model have been analyzed through numerical parametric study. Finally, the new model has been successfully applied to describe the evolution of natural-gas consumption in China, the evolution of natural-gas consumption in Spain, and the evolution of electricity consumption in Morocco.

KEYWORDS:

• Asymmetry
• energy consumptuion
• logistic model
• regression analysis

Funding

Financial support for this article was obtained from the Undergraduate Innovation Practice Program, Shanghai Jiao Tong University (Project No. S080IPP001006).

Additional information

Funding

Financial support for this article was obtained from the Undergraduate Innovation Practice Program, Shanghai Jiao Tong University (Project No. S080IPP001006).