The Impact of Wind Speed Variability on Wind Power Potential and Estimated Generation Cost

Abstract

Wind measurements are generally taken at hourly intervals. Since wind speed fluctuates rapidly over time, some critical errors might occur between the estimated and the actual energy output. In this study, the impact of wind speed variability on wind power potential and estimated generation cost was analyzed by using 22 years of wind data sets for two different models of wind turbines with the capacities of 1,500 kW and 2,500 kW. As a result, the differences observed in annual energy production estimation for a 1,500 kW turbine and a 2,500 kW turbine were up to 50.1% and 48.89%, respectively. Consequently, the same differences occurred between yearly energy production costs.

Keywords:

• economic analysis
• Turkey
• wind power potential
• wind speed variability
• wind turbine