Minimal global regret analysis for electricity generation expansion

ABSTRACT

A comparative assessment of alternative expansion plans for the Mexican electricity generation system was made by applying the Position Vector of Minimum Regret Analysis as a decision tool. The expansion plans were ranked according to seven decision criteria which consider: internal cost, risk, diversity, external cost, foreign capital fraction, carbon-free fraction, and severe accidents. Electricity expansions were optimized by using the WASP-IV model; internal costs and externalities over a long-term planning horizon were simultaneously minimized when the external cost was added into the variable component of the operation and maintenance cost. Special attention was paid to studying the convenience of including nuclear power in the electricity expansion. The new decision analysis tool ranked the plans in terms of the minimum global regret, and results showed that the plans which added nuclear power plants were in general relatively more attractive than the plans that did not.

KEYWORDS:

• Decision analysis
• electricity expansion planning
• long-term planning
• Mexican electricity generation
• Position Vector of Minimum Regret Analysis