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ABSTRACT
Oil price uncertainties significantly impact investment decisions and economic conditions. Hence, to better assist business operations and government policymaking, it is critical to devise methods for accurately forecasting future oil prices. Based on January 1984-October 2012 monthly data covering 346 sets of historically observed values, this study aims to propose an innovative forecasting method through utilizing the long-term quadratic sine-curve trend model for forecasting 2013–2025 oil prices. The results show that international crude oil prices would maintain at $120–150 per barrel under normal economic conditions during 2013–2015 periods. However, given the dependency on non-renewable fossil fuel and its scarcity, crude oil prices would rise to $200 per barrel from 2019 and exceed $300 per barrel from 2025. These findings could serve as useful forecasting references for investors, business operators, and governments in making investments, management, and policy decisions.