Nigeria electricity forecast and vision 20: 2020: Evidence from ARIMA model

ABSTRACT

This study employs autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast electricity consumption in Nigeria, as a way to investigate the condition under which the country could achieve the target of twentieth top-ranked economy in 2020. The study finds that given the current trend, Nigeria will only attain the 2011 level of electricity consumption in Italy (the current twentieth top economy) in the year 2671. However, with a consistent annual increase of 10% or 20%, taking 2012 as base year, it will be achieved in 2050 or 2032, respectively. But, if the consumption level is to be achieved in 2020, the annual increase of 57% will be required.

KEYWORDS:

• ARIMA
• development
• electricity consumption
• electricity forecast
• Nigeria