A mitigation scenario for Latin American power-related carbon dioxide emissions

ABSTRACT

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed an ambitious carbon dioxide emission mitigation scenario with specific recommendations for Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) countries. However, this mitigation scenario entails significant limitations. The expected electricity production for the region is quite low compared to global average figures. This situation could endanger the sustainable development of the region. In this paper, we discuss an alternative mitigation scenario that seeks the compliance of both climate objectives and future energy requirements. This new scenario is based on the widespread integration of smart grids and renewable energies. High capacity smart transmission grids could enlarge existing transnational electricity markets. Results show that Latin America could contribute with 4.1% of the global mitigation effort up to 2040 (the IEA’s 450 S scenario for the region is 3.6%) with an additional investment of 7% in large-scale renewable-based generation plants and HDVC transmission links. As a main result, future regional generation output is aligned with the requirements of national policy scenarios outlined at the climate convention.

KEYWORDS:

• Sustainability
• development
• smart grids
• renewable energy
• carbon intensity for electricity
• power sector

Notes

¹ NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center, http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0051.

² Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

³ http://wdi.worldbank.org/

⁴ Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) countries included in the database are: Argentina; Bolivia; Brazil; Chile Colombia; Costa Rica; Cuba; the Dominican Republic; Ecuador; El Salvador; Guatemala; Haiti; Honduras; Jamaica; Mexico, Nicaragua; Panama; Paraguay; Peru; Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago; Uruguay; Venezuela, and other small Caribbean countries as Antigua and Barbuda; Aruba; the Bahamas; Barbados; Belize; Bermuda; Bonaire; the British Virgin Islands; the Cayman Islands; Curacao; Dominica; the Falkland Islands (Malvinas); the French Guiana; Grenada; Guadeloupe; Guyana; Martinique; Montserrat; Puerto Rico; Saba; Saint Eustatius; Saint Kitts and Nevis; Saint Lucia; Saint Pierre and Miquelon; Saint Vincent and the Grenadines; Saint Maarten and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

⁵ https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tables.

⁶ http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data..

⁷ https://ppi.worldbank.org/.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported in part by CAF Development Bank of Latin America, Contract 4121515158.