The impact of China’s carbon neutrality target on its energy consumption structure by 2050

ABSTRACT

Promoting energy transformation is a major issue in achieving China’s carbon neutrality target. The changes in China’s energy consumption stemming from the policies related to this issue were simulated based on the energy policy simulation model. The results show the following. (1) Implementing related policies will significantly decrease total primary energy consumption, and non-fossil energy will be China’s main source of energy consumption by 2050. (2) The energy consumption corresponding to buildings, transportation, and industry will be electricity-led by 2050, and electricity will mainly be generated with non-fossil energy sources. (3) In 2030, China will reach a carbon peak, and non-fossil energy will account for 43% of the country’s primary energy consumption, comprising electrical (73%), solar (11%), wind (7%), hydro (7%) and biomass (2%) energy. (4) COVID-19 has had a short-term driving effect on this process, as it initially slowed down global economic cooperation, but it has had a hindering effect on the process in the long term.

KEYWORDS:

• Carbon neutrality
• energy consumption
• energy structure
• scenario simulation

Acknowledgements

This research is supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (22CX04008B). The authors thank the editors and anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions that helped improve the quality of the paper.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).