Worse Things Than Losing: Underdogs Defining Likelihood of Success

Abstract

This essay is a preliminary argument intended to provoke just war scholars to think more carefully and deeply about the criterion of likelihood of success. This is particularly appropriate at this moment in time as Taiwan is on high alert as it faces China, and as we watch the determination of Ukraine to defend itself from Russian aggression. Since the writing of this essay, the 9 million people of the state of Israel faced the horrific assault by Hamas terrorists on October 7, 2023. If likelihood of success is prioritized over the primary jus ad bellum criteria, then many possible limited successes evaporate from creative strategy. Perhaps a better way of thinking about this is that we must be thoughtful in defining what we mean by “success.” Success need not be only immediate tactical or strategic victory, as tactical losses may result in strategic wins.

Keywords:

• likelihood of success
• just war theory
• ethics of war
• Russia
• Ukraine

Notes

1 This essay was prepared for and presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association in Montreal, Canada on March 15, 2023. A later version was presented at the annual meeting of the International Society for Security Studies, held at the US Air Force Academy on October 21, 2023.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Eric Patterson

Eric Patterson, PhD, is President & CEO of the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, Scholar-at-Large and the former dean of the School of Government at Regent University, and a research fellow and former faculty member at Georgetown University Berkley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs. He is the author or editor of twenty-two books, including Just American Wars: Ethical Dilemmas in U.S. Military History.