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Research Papers

Research issues on warning lead@time and synergy in flood mitigation measures

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Pages 331-346 | Received 04 Feb 2004, Accepted 04 Feb 2004, Published online: 23 Aug 2010
 

Abstract

The recognition of the synergy in integrated flood‐risk management measures can render further benefits and contribute towards sustainable development. These measures include flood forecasting and warning (FF&W), temporary/demountable measures and insurance, which are linked through lead‐time invoking an inherent synergy among them. International experience shows that in many cases FF&W is unjustifiably treated as a discrete measure overlooking inherent synergies. This is inevitably the case when the values of lead‐time are short or the degree of confidence in forecast results is unknown. This paper informs on current research activities aiming to improve lead‐time through the application of technological innovations. These include the feasibility of integrating meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic forecasting capabilities and decision‐making onto one computer platform to manage the full lifecycle of real‐time information on flood warning. These projects are part of the fifth European Framework Programme of research projects. The emerging capability would be particularly useful for British catchments, where there is a perception that lead‐times are often low. This paper discusses the role of lead‐time in maximising the synergy, arguing that the translation of this synergy into benefits is a matter of policy. With an effective policy, the potential benefits can contribute to sustainability of flood risk management measures else; risks can be escalated owing to increased short‐term financial opportunities through developments.

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