A model conditional processor to assess predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting

Abstract

This paper briefly discusses the nature, the causes and the role of predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting and proposes a novel approach to its estimation. Following the definition of predictive uncertainty, its importance in the decision process is highlighted in relation to the different sources of errors (model, parameter, observations, boundary conditions) that affect flood forecasting. Moreover, the paper briefly analyses the importance of using a full predictive uncertainty, obtained by marginalising the parameter uncertainty, instead of the predictive uncertainty conditional to a single parameter set. Finally, a new Model Conditional Processor (MCP) for the assessment of predictive uncertainty is then proposed as an alternative to the Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor (HUP) introduced by Krzysztofowicz as well as to the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach due to Raftery et al. The new MCP approach, which aims at assessing, and possibly reducing, predictive uncertainty, allows combination of the observations with one or several models’ forecasts in a multi‐Normal space, by transforming observations and model forecasts in a multivariate Normal space by means of the Normal Quantile Transform. The results of the new approach are shown for the case of the River Po in Italy, and compared with the results obtainable both with the HUP and the BMA.

Keywords:

• Predictive uncertainty
• flood forecasting
• Hydrological Uncertainty Processor
• Bayesian Model Averaging
• Model Conditional Processor