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ABSTRACT
Storm surge was calculated based on 23 different scenarios of a tropical cyclone (TC) trajectory, intensity and translation speed making landfall over a radius of 100 km of the Pánuco River at Tampico, Mexico. At the coast, the highest water levels resulted when the landfall was directly over the study area. When the landfall was 50 km south the high water levels remained for the longest time and highest levels occurred upstream. Also, high water levels were sustained longer when the TC had a slow translational speed (∼2 m/s) relative to fast-moving storms (∼4 m/s). Negative water levels resulted for events making landfall north of the study area, which may increase flushing of the river discharge and mitigate flooding from river overflown. The implications of the different scenarios are discussed in relation to management and implementation of contingency plans.
Funding
This work was carried out with the aid of the Institute of Engineering – UNAM [project 2369] and the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research [IAI, grant number CRN II #2048], which is supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation [grant number GEO-0452325]. The authors thank the organising committee of the International Workshop of Flood Risk Management where this work was presented, and the anonymous reviewers who greatly contributed to the improvement of this manuscript.