Abstract
In this paper we describe the execution of a risk-based analysis on a simple, small-scale water resources planning problem. We aim to understand whether a risk-based approach could underpin the regulated water resources planning process in England and Wales. We demonstrate the practical feasibility of the approach and identify clear benefits over the conventional planning methods. We also identify several nontrivial challenges for scaling up and caution against the view that better quality decisions would emerge naturally from risk-based analyses. Useful future research might focus on: (1) the development of practical methodologies for applying these approaches to larger, more complex resource zones; (2) identifying and overcoming problems associated with regulating a risk-based water resources planning process; and (3) developing methods of economic options appraisal that can deploy the outputs of a risk-based analysis to inform planning decisions.