Climate, land use and hydrologic sensitivities of stormwater quantity and quality in a complex coastal-urban watershed

Abstract

We determined reference hydro-climatic and land use/cover sensitivities of stormwater runoff and quality in the Miami River Basin of Florida by developing a dynamic rainfall-runoff model with the EPA Storm Water Management Model. Potential storm runoff in the complex coastal-urban basin exhibited high and notably different seasonal sensitivities to rainfall; with stronger responses in the drier early winter and wetter late summer months. Basin runoff and pollutant loads showed moderate sensitivities to the hydrologic and land cover parameters; imperviousness and roughness exhibited more dominant influence than slope. Sensitivity to potential changes in land use patterns was relatively low. The changes in runoff and pollutants under simultaneous hydro-climatic or climate-land use perturbations were notably different than the summations of their individual contributions. The quantified sensitivities can be useful for appropriate management of stormwater quantity and quality in complex urban basins under a changing climate, land use/cover, and hydrology around the world.

Keywords:

• stormwater
• sensitivity
• climate
• land use
• hydrology
• SWMM

Acknowledgements

The research was funded by a faculty start-up grant from the College of Engineering and Computing of the Florida International University, Miami, U.S.A. Contributions of Dr. Abdul-Aziz were also funded by the State of Florida Office of Insurance Regulations through the “Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model Enhancements” project. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the State of Florida or any of its subagencies. We thank the reviewers and the Editor for providing insightful comments.