Pressure as a predictor of occurrence of pipe breaks in water distribution networks

Abstract

Sudden bursts in water distribution networks may lead to costly consequences. As pressure is one of the causes of such events, pressure management could reduce the probability of failure. In this work, a methodology is proposed to analyse the relationship between pipe breaks and water pressure by means of pressure-related indicators. The objective is to identify the most influential indicators for the probability of occurrence of pipe breaks. The methodology compares the cumulative distribution function (CDF) conditioned to breaks and 100 random sets of the same size sampled from the CDF of the indicator. The most influential indicators are related to the greatest number of rejected cases of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Moment indicators and their calculation period emerge from sensitivity analyses. The methodology is applied to six sectors of Madrid (Spain) while two sectors are used for validation. Results show that the pressure range is the best indicator of breaks.

Keywords:

• performance indicators
• pipelines
• water supply
• decision support
• urban water management

Acknowledgements

The authors appreciate the help provided by the company Canal de Isabel II Gestión S.A. through provision of data used in this work and scientific and technological support. The authors are also grateful to Dr Casilda Saavedra, from the Technological University of Panama, who reviewed the manuscript and provided useful suggestions.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

The authors acknowledge the financial support received from the Spanish Centre for Technological Industrial Development (CDTI) through the TecoAgua Project (Sustainable Development of Technologies for the Integral Water Cycle). The first author wishes to show her gratitude for funding received from the Agustin de Betancourt Foundation.