Stochastic seasonal rainfall simulation model for Irbid region, Northern Jordan

ABSTRACT

A stochastic hourly simulation model is developed for the synthesis of the rainfall pattern in the northern part of Jordan. The generation of synthetic rainfall data is an attempt to provide longer data sequences. The simulation model is based on statistical properties of rainfall data for three stations in the Northern region of Jordan for the period 1975–2004. The mean and variances of important rainfall characteristics were reasonably well preserved in the synthesized data. The simulated characteristics include the duration, total depth and depth at 50% duration and mass curves of the storms. The intensity-duration-frequency curves generated by this model compared well with locally available curves. The resulting IDF curves based on the stochastically generated storm sequences are usually used for flood estimation in urban/rural watersheds. Using the resulting IDF curves is highly recommended for rigorous, efficient and safe design of hydraulic structures and flood protection works.

KEYWORDS:

• Stochastic precipitation process precipitation modeling probability distribution jordan

Acknowledgements

The author gratefully acknowledges the Jordanian Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI) and Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ) for their cooperation and providing all the necessary data and feedback.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.