Stochastic long-term reliability of water distribution networks using Monte Carlo simulation

ABSTRACT

In this paper, a new method is developed to consider the effect of pipe roughness, diameter and nodal demand uncertainty on the overall reliability of the Water Distribution networks (WDNs) throughout the day as well as the planning horizon. For this purpose, probabilistic series for each of the mentioned parameters is generated by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Network Pressure Reliability Index (NPRI) is then used to evaluate the overall reliability of the system. The study is performed on the benchmark Two-loop sample network and a real-world one. The comparison of deterministic and stochastic results reveal that the stochastic method tends to capture subtleties missed by deterministic method such as probability of failing the reliability in various locations at the same time. Also, the stochastic method seems to have an undoubted advantage in prediction of undesirable results prior to deterministic method, making it an essential component in long-term planning.

KEYWORDS:

• Extended Period Simulation (EPS)
• reliability
• uncertainty
• water distribution networks
• Monte Carlo simulation (MCS)
• long term planning
• probability

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).