Assessment of the impact of the rise in Lake Victoria water levels on urban flooding using a GIS-based spatial flood modelling approach

ABSTRACT

During the period 2018–2021, Lake Victoria experienced a rapid rise in water levels that caused significant urban flooding consequences. However, there are no studies that have extensively investigated the effect of the rising lake water levels on urban flooding. This research responds to this by developing and applying a GIS-based spatial flood modelling approach to simulate the resulting flooding impacts in Entebbe City, Uganda, corresponding to the May 2021 observed maximum lake water level of 13.49 m. Using the validated GIS-based flood model, the simulated flooded area and average flood depth were determined as 9.1 km² and 1.52 m, respectively. Furthermore, through application of GIS overlay analysis, the total number of affected buildings and length of urban roads were quantified. The proposed methodology provides a robust and computationally efficient approach for identification of at-risk buildings along the lake shoreline and for testing the effectiveness of potential adaptation strategies.

KEYWORDS:

• Flood modelling
• flood resilience
• Lake Victoria
• water level rise

Acknowledgements

Acknowledgement is given to the Directorate of Water Resources Management (DWRM), Ministry of Water and Environment, Uganda and Uganda Electricity Generation Company Ltd (UEGCL) for provision of the observed water level data for Lake Victoria. The insights of the three anonymous reviewers are also gratefully acknowledged. We also confirm that there are no relevant financial or non-financial competing interests to report.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2023.2284960