Hydrostatic seasonal state model for monitoring data analysis of concrete dams

Abstract

Based on the idea that time-effect deformation can be regarded as a state vector indicating the characteristics of concrete dams, a hydrostatic seasonal state (HSS) model is proposed for improving the accuracy of the data analysis of concrete dams. According to the theory of non-stationary time series, the state equation of the HSS model is represented for objectively extracting the time-effect deformation from monitoring data of total deformation and to interpret its evolution accurately. In this study, the HSS model is applied to an arch dam case, and it is estimated by using the expectation-maximisation algorithm. The results illustrate that the HSS model can efficiently estimate the time-effect deformation from monitoring data of total deformation. Compared with the hydrostatic seasonal time model, the proposed HSS model shows an improvement in fitting precision and prediction ability.

Keywords::

• dams
• dam safety
• monitoring
• data analysis
• statistical models

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

^1. Email: [email protected]

^2. Email: [email protected]

^3. Email: [email protected]

^4. Email: [email protected]

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 51079127, 51179171 and 51279180], the National Basic Research Program of China [grant number 2013CB035901] and the Key Science and Technology Innovation Team of Zhejiang Province [grant number 2010R50034].