Bayesian assessment of an existing bridge: a case study

Abstract

This article presents a case study involving the assessment of an existing bridge, starting with simple methods and ending with a probabilistic analysis, the latter emphasising Bayesian methods. When assessing an existing bridge, it is common practice to collect information from the bridge in the form of samples. These samples are in general of small size, raising the question of how the corresponding statistical uncertainty can be taken into account on reliability estimates. The case study illustrates how Bayesian methods are especially suitable to deal with that source of uncertainty. Another strong point of the Bayesian methods is their ability to combine the information contained in the samples collected from the bridge with prior information, if any. This aspect will also be illustrated through the case study.

Keywords::

• existing bridges
• probabilistic assessment
• Bayesian updating
• statistical uncertainty
• predictive model

Notes

^1. Email: [email protected]

^2. Email: [email protected]

Additional information

Funding

The first author acknowledges the support received from the Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, acceptance and encouragement by the Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil, where this work was carried out, and the partial funding provided by Fundação Para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) [grant number SFRH/BD/45022/2008].