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Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
Maintenance, Management, Life-Cycle Design and Performance
Volume 13, 2017 - Issue 7
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Articles

Bridge residual service-life prediction through Bayesian visual inspection and data updating

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Pages 906-917 | Received 26 Oct 2015, Accepted 17 Jun 2016, Published online: 06 Sep 2016
 

Abstract

The paper describes an integrated procedure for evaluation of the service-life curve of existing bridges, calibrated with data derived from visual inspections and aimed at assessing the degree of deterioration of their structural/non-structural elements. Visual inspections allowed a total sufficiency rating for the bridges to be calculated, together with data collection, to be used in Bayesian updating of element deterioration curves. The results were combined with information from simulations of potential bridge deterioration scenarios to quantify mean trends and related uncertainties of the remaining service-life curves of existing bridges. The proposed procedure was applied to two bridge stocks and results are critically discussed. The method used may allow public authorities/private managing companies to optimise economic resources allocated to long/medium-term maintenance plans for the most critical structures.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Nicolò Cester for his help in procedure formulation, and 4Emme S.p.A. for providing a set of visual inspection data.

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