Risk-based asset management: automated structural reliability assessment of geographically distributed pipeline networks for gas and water in the Netherlands

Abstract

Pipeline networks for gas and water are the lifelines of our society. Most pipelines are buried, which obstructs direct monitoring of the pipes, and introduces the need for other techniques to provide network operators with information on the structural reliability of their network. One of the threats related to pipelines, possibly jeopardising the integrity of the network, is deformation of the subsurface surrounding the pipes, which imposes stress in the pipes. This paper describes the development of a fully computerised and automated model to calculate the probability of failure caused by subsurface deformation of pipes over time in the Netherlands. The objective is to provide failure probability information to network operators assisting the decision-making process regarding preventive measures, such as timely replacement. It will result in a reduction of costs associated with pipe failure, and lead to increased safety (e.g. explosion hazard) and certainty of delivery. The methodology used to develop the model is denoted as the STOOP system-of-systems. First results of the model are presented for a case study and show that different data sources and different models can be combined into a system of systems capable of performing predictive assessments.

Keywords:

• Structural reliability
• pipeline networks
• risk-based asset management
• subsurface model
• subsurface settlements
• InSAR
• pipe–subsurface interaction

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank the co-financers of the project for (co)financing the STOOP project, as well as Jan Gunnink, Wim Dubelaar, Nikki Trabucho, Erik Langius and Kristian Helmholt for their valuable contribution to the paper (respectively text, inspiration and figures).