Does market risk predict credit risk? An analysis of firm risk sensitivity, evidence from South Korea^*

* Accepted by Yue Ma upon recommendation by Junbo Wang

Abstract

We empirically test the relation between stock volatility (market risk) and credit ratings (credit risk) using KRX listed firms. We find a negative relation between stock volatility and credit ratings. The results suggest that as stock price volatility increases, a firm is more likely to experience a credit rating decrease. After dividing our sample into investment and non-investment grade groups, we find the relation between volatility and a credit rating decrease diminishes in the investment grade sample compared to the non-investment grade sample. Overall, we find investment grade firms are more likely to absorb shocks associated with speculative investment/divestment compared to price sensitive non-investment grade firms.

Keywords:

• Market risk
• stock return volatility
• credit risk
• credit ratings
• investment grade

Notes

* Accepted by Yue Ma upon recommendation by Junbo Wang