Fan preferences: one country, two markets and different behaviours

ABSTRACT

Research question: Previous papers analysing broadcast demand for sports have provided general findings for the countries studied. However, each region in the same country could have different determinants. The present study aims to analyse the demand for broadcast football, emphasising the effect of the uncertainty of outcomes in Brazil’s two biggest markets: Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.

Research methods: The dataset comprises an unbalanced panel with club fixed effects, including all 228 broadcast matches from the Brazilian League across the seasons 2013 to 2015 – 115 from the state of Rio de Janeiro and 113 from the state of São Paulo. Three linear regressions are carried out in order to determine the importance of the uncertainty of outcome, as well as the existence of win preference or loss aversion behaviours.

Results and findings: The results highlight similarities between the markets, such as higher audiences on weekdays and the strong importance of derby matches in attracting viewers. However, the findings reveal that Rio de Janeiro fans exhibit loss aversion and São Paulo supporters prefer more certain matches.

Implications: Consumer preferences may differ across a country. Hence, by understanding the diversity in fan behaviour, TV channels might more effectively adjust the matches they broadcast, increasing fan interest in these games, as well as enhancing the channels’ and the clubs’ revenues.

KEYWORDS:

• Broadcast demand
• Brazilian football
• uncertainty of outcome
• loss aversion
• win preference

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Ary Rocco and Vinicius Paiva for their kind support providing the data needed to perform this study. We thank the anonymous referees and the Editor for their numerous and useful suggestions and for doing their job very quickly.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

ORCID

Thadeu Gasparetto http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4675-302X

Ángel Barajas http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0198-4457

Notes

1 R$583 million and R$ 1538 million. Exchange Rate €1.00 = R$ 3.3248 in 07/03/2017.

2 The number of classified teams increased to seven in the 2016 edition. However, there is no confirmation of the number of clubs in future seasons.

3 On 3 May 2016, Band confirmed that it will not broadcast the Brazilian League for that season.

4 Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). Available at http://www.ibge.gov.br/home/.

5 Buraimo and Simmons (2015) evaluated that using the Weekday variable.

6 The time slots were not researched because the broadcast matches on free-to-air TV always take place on Wednesday at 10 pm and on Sunday at 4 pm.

7 The largest football stadium by capacity in those markets is Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro): 78,838 people. Considering the average TV audience in Rio de Janeiro, a sold-out Maracanã stadium may not affect the broadcast demand there.

8 It is a specific kind of tournament in Brazilian football. There are also Regional Championships. However, it has recently returned, and only a few are played at the moment.

Additional information

Funding

This paper is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE). Thadeu Gasparetto acknowledges the grant Axudas Predoutorais from the University of Vigo.