The dynamics of Hong Kong's office rental market

Abstract

Forecasting office rents is among the most researched topics in real estate study. However, there are still heated debates on how predictions can be best done. This study provides a generator approach, on the basis of both system dynamics and econometric modeling. The findings suggest that the office rental values in Hong Kong appear to be more volatile and uncertain under better economic conditions, likely due to both the supply side of the property market being over‐optimistic of economic trends and the development lags and adjustment cost, under the influence of the current land policies in Hong Kong, are the main issues behind this phenomenon. In order to minimize the uncertainties on the office leasing market, the government should relax the approval procedures concerning changing land use, and the subsequent rearrangements of premium payment. Further, the current policies on land sales need to be revised, especially the application list system. Those measures could reduce the time and transaction cost incurred, thus leading to more timely response to demand changes over time.

SANTRUKA

Biuru nuomos prognozes yra tarp dažniausiai nagrinejamu nekilnojamo turto tyrimu temu. Tačiau del geriausio prognozavimo metodo vis dar vyksta karšti debatai. Šiame straipsnyje pateikiamas generatoriaus metodas, pagristas sistemos dinamika ir ekonometriniu modeliavimu. Išvados rodo, kad Honkonge biuru nuomos vertes esti labiau kintamos ir neapibrežtos, kai ekonomines salygos yra geresnes. Taip yra greičiausiai del to, kad turto rinkoje veikiantys tiekejai pernelyg optimistiškai žiūri j ekonomines tendencijas, kad veluoja pletra ir reguliavimo sanaudos, veikiamos dabartines krašto politikos Honkonge. Tai yra pagrindines su šiuo reiškiniu susijusios temos. Noredama sumažinti biuru nuomos rinkos neapibrežtuma, vyriausybe turetu supaprastinti patvirtinimo procedūras, susijusias su kintančia žemes paskirtimi, bei su tuo susijusius imoku mokejimo pertvarkymus. Be to, reiketu pakoreguoti esama prekybos žeme politika, ypač sklypu sarašu sistema. Šios priemones galetu sumažinti laika ir patiriamas transakciju išlaidas, taip paskatindamos greitesne reakcija j paklausos pokyčius, laikui begant.

Keywords:

• Office Rental Values
• System Dynamics Modeling
• Econometric Modeling
• Hong Kong