Media Discontinuance: Modeling the Diffusion “S” Curve to Declines in Media Use

Abstract

The cumulative growth in innovations such as new media has been modeled with S-curves. However, the S-curve model has not been applied to mature innovations that have reached their peak of diffusion and begun to decline. This study explores the potential extension of the use of the S-curve to model decays in the availability or usage of traditional media. Using annual data from declines in telegrams, afternoon newspapers, vinyl records, outdoor movie theaters, and VHS tapes, this study finds that declines in incumbent media often follow a dramatic downward path that is more abrupt than that of media undergoing growth. Implications for media management and theory are discussed.

Key Words:

• Diffusion of innovation
• Displacement
• Media exposure
• Strategic management