Precursory Signals of Extensive and Persistent Extreme Cold Events in China

Abstract

The distinct precursory signals of countrywide extensive and persistent extreme cold events (CECs) were investigated and contrasted with those of countrywide cold wave events (CCWs). It is shown that most CECs were accompanied by a CCW in the initial stages. From the comparison between the CECs and the CCWs that were independent of any CEC, it is found that a south-west-northeast-oriented tilted ridge at 500 hPa was present around the Europe-Barents Sea regions approximately 10 days prior to the start of the CEC. Consistent with this feature, a high sea level pressure and strong cold air accumulation occurred over a broad extent of northern Eurasia one week prior to the start of the CEC. The tilted ridge and the strong cold air accumulation were the pre-cursory signals that were absent for the CCW, and they provide important clues for the early prediction of whether a CCW event might evolve into a CEC.

Key Words:

• precursory signal
• extensive and persistent extreme cold event
• cold wave
• the tilted ridge