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Abstract
Future changes in the climate regimes over China as measured by the Köppen climate classification are reported in this paper. The analysis is based on a high-resolution climate change simulation conducted by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3) driven by the global model of Center for Climate System Re-search (CCSR)/National Institute for Environment Studies (NIES)/Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) MIROC3.2_hires (the Model for Interdiscipli-nary Research on Climate) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Validation of the model performances is presented first. The results show that RegCM3 reproduces the present-day distribution of the Köppen climate types well. Significant changes of the types are found in the future over China, following the simulated warming and precipitation changes. In southern China, the change is characterized by the replacement of subtropical humid (Cr) by subtropical winterdry (Cw). A pronounced decrease of the cold climate types is found over China, e.g., tundra (Ft) over the Tibetan Plateau and sub-arctic continental (Ec) over northeast China. The changes are usually greater in the end compared with the middle of the 21st century.