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Abstract
I examine how Congress reacts when the president refuses to terminate involvement in an unpopular war. To address this, I devise a set of hypotheses based on David Mayhew’s work Congress and the Electoral Connection and seek to predict the conditions under which Congress will employ three strategies to end a war: enacting legislation, framing exit strategies, and privately lobbying the president. I test these hypotheses in two cases, the Vietnam and Iraq wars, and conclude that the hypotheses provide a compelling explanation for Congressional behavior during the two wars.
Notes
1. 1. Adam Nagourney and Megan Thee, “With Election Driven by Iraq, Voters Want New Approach.” New York Times, November 2, 2006. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/02/us/politics/02poll.html.
2. 2. “Bush: ‘We Need to Change Our Strategy in Iraq,’” CNN.com, January 11, 2007. http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/01/10/bush.transcript/index.html
3. 3. January 2007 ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Unless otherwise noted, all poll data was obtained from searches of the iPOLL Databank and other resources provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut.
4. 4. William G. Howell and Jon C. Pevehouse, “When Congress Stops Wars,” Foreign Affairs September/October (2007): 95–107.
5. 5. Julian E. Zelizer, “Congress and the Politics of Troop Withdrawal,” Diplomatic History 34, no. 3 (2010): 529–541; Julian E. Zelizer, “How Congress Helped End the Vietnam War,” American Prospect, February 6, 2007. http://prospect.org/cs/articles?articleId=12438
6. 6. Roger H. Davidson, Walter J. Oleszek, and Frances E. Lee, Congress and Its Members (Washington, DC: Sage, 2012), 464.
7. 7. Louis Fisher, Ryan Hendrickson, and Stephen R. Weissman, “Congress at War,” Foreign Affairs, May/June (2008): 167–169.
8. 8. James N. Lindsay and Randall B. Ripley, “How Congress Influences Foreign and Defense Policy,” 17–36. In Congress Resurgent: Foreign and Defense Policy on Capitol Hill, eds. James N. Lindsay and Randall B. Ripley (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1993), 22–35.
9. 9. Jennifer K. Elsea, Michael John Garcia, and Thomas J. Nicola, “Congressional Authority to Limit US Military Operations in Iraq.” CRS Report for Congress. Updated April 24, 2007, pages 2–4.
10. 10. Elsa et al., “Congressional Authority,” 2–4.
11. 11. Ripley and Lindsay, “How Congress Influences,” 23.
12. 12. Ibid., 25–26.
13. 13. Ibid., 32–33.
14. 14. Ibid., 34.
15. 15. David R. Mayhew, Congress: The Electoral Connection (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1974), 16–17.
16. 16. Davidson, Oleszek, and Lee, Congress and Its Members, 7.
17. 17. Mayhew, Congress: The Electoral Connection, 27.
18. 18. Ibid., 61.
19. 19. Ibid., 67.
20. 20. Ibid., 63.
21. 21. R. Kent Weaver, “The Politics of Blame Avoidance,” Journal of Public Policy 6, no. 4 (1986): 371–398, 378.
22. 22. Weaver, “The Politics of Blame Avoidance,” 386.
23. 23. Ibid.,” 394.
24. 24. R. Douglas Arnold, The Logic of Congressional Action (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1990), 10.
25. 25. Arnold, The Logic of Congressional Action, 47.
26. 26. I base this selection on the criteria outlined in Davidson et al., Congress and Its Members, 441–443.
27. 27. David A. Welch, Painful Choices: A Theory of Foreign Policy Change (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005), 130–135.
28. 28. Gallup Poll (AIPO), released November 21, 1967. Roper iPoll Databank.
29. 29. John Mueller, War, Presidents, and Public Opinion (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1973), 107.
30. 30. “President Lyndon B. Johnson’s Address to the Nation Announcing Steps to Limit the War in Vietnam and Reporting His Decision Not to Seek Reelection,” March 31, 1968. http://www.lbjlib.utexas.edu/Johnson/archives.hom/speeches.hom/680331.asp
31. 31. Robert Mann, A Grand Delusion: America’s Descent into Vietnam (New York: Basic Books, 2001), 593, 615, 624.
32. 32. Julian Zelizer, Arsenal of Democracy: The Politics of National Security—From World War II to the War on Terrorism (New York: Basic Books, 2009), 219. The remaining House seats were held by third-party legislators.
33. 33. For an overview of the motives behind Nixon’s Vietnam policy, see Robert Dallek, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power (New York: Harper Collins, 2007); Pierre Asslain, A Bitter Peace: Washington, Hanoi, and the Making of the Paris Agreement (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2002).
34. 34. Gallup Poll (AIPO), released June 24, 1969. Roper iPoll Databank.
35. 35. Gallup Poll (AIPO), released October 7, 1969. Roper iPoll Databank.
36. 36. “Minutes of National Security Council Meeting,” January 25, 1969, Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, 6.
37. 37. “Address to the Nation on the War in Vietnam,” November 3, 1969. http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=2303
38. 38. William Shawcross, Sideshow: Kissinger, Nixon and the Destruction of Cambodia (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1979), 128–129.
39. 39. “Address to the Nation on the Situation in Southeast Asia,” April 30, 1970. http://millercenter.org/scripps/archive/speeches/detail/3876
40. 40. Mann, A Grand Delusion, 646; John W. Finney, “Democrats Back Vietnam Protest; Move by Group in Congress Could Confront President with a Partisan Issue,” New York Times, September 27, 1969.
41. 41. Belasco, “Congressional Restrictions,” 13.
42. 42. Ibid., 16.
43. 43. Ibid., 16.
44. 44. Julian E. Zelizer, “Congress and the Politics of Troop Withdrawal,” 536.
45. 45. Belasco et al., “Congressional Restrictions,” 2; Zelizer, “How Congress Helped End the Vietnam War.”
46. 46. “Stennis Decries Moves to Curb Nixon on War,” New York Times, May 14, 1970.
47. 47. John W. Finney, “Senate Seen Influencing Nixon on War,” New York Times, May 17, 1970.
48. 48. “M’govern Scores Nixon on Vietnam,” New York Times, March 18, 1969.
49. 49. John W. Finney, “M’govern Urges a Total Pullout,” New York Times, July 3, 1969.
50. 50. Mann, A Grand Delusion, 666.
51. 51. “Address Accepting the Presidential Nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Miami Beach, Florida,” July 14, 1972. http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=25967
52. 52. Randall Bennett Woods, J. William Fulbright, Vietnam, and the Search for a Cold War Foreign Policy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), 115–123.
53. 53. John W. Finney, “Congress Hails Goals Set Forth by Nixon,” New York Times, January 21, 1969; Mann, A Grand Delusion, 627.
54. 54. Mann, A Grand Delusion, 627.
55. 55. Finney, “M’govern Scores Nixon on Vietnam.”
56. 56. John W. Finney, “Nixon Talk Angers Senate Critics,” New York Times, November 5, 1969; Mann, A Grand Delusion, 645.
57. 57. James H. Willbanks, Abandoning Vietnam: How America Left and South Vietnam Lost Its War (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 2004), 65.
58. 58. Robert B. Semple, “Nixon, in a Visit, Thanks Congress for War Support,” New York Times, November 14, 1969.
59. 59. Zelizer, “Congress and the Politics of Troop Withdrawal,” 534.
60. 60. Richard M. Nixon, RN: The Memoirs of Richard Nixon (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1990), 407–409.
61. 61. J. Edward Lee, Toby Haynsworth, and H. C. Haynsworth, Nixon, Ford and the Abandonment of South Vietnam (Jefferson: McFarland, 2002), 35.
62. 62. Minutes of National Security Council Meeting,” September 12, 1969, Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, 6, pp. 390–404.
63. 63. Henry Kissinger, Ending the Vietnam War: A History of America’s Involvement in and Extrication from the Vietnam War (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2003), 156.
64. 64. Nixon, RN: The Memoirs of Richard Nixon, 451.
65. 65. Ibid., 604–505.
66. 66. Ibid., 700.
67. 67. Ibid., 724.
68. 68. Kimball, Nixon’s Vietnam War, 355.
69. 69. James M. Naughton, “The Congress,” New York Times, January 7, 1973; James M. Naughton, “Congress Critics of War Threaten to Fight Funding,” New York Times, January 3, 1973.
70. 70. “Congress Demands Peace,” New York Times, January 4, 1973.
71. 71. Willbanks, Abandoning Vietnam, 186.
72. 72. “Text of a Radio and Television Address by the President on an Agreement on Ending the War and Restoring Peace in Vietnam.” Printed in Larry Berman, No Peace, No Honor: Nixon, Kissinger, and Betrayal in Vietnam (New York: Free Press, 2001), 285–287.
73. 73. Belasco et al., “Congressional Restrictions,” 2.
74. 74. Thomas M. Franck and Edward Weisband, Foreign Policy by Congress (New York: Oxford University Press, 1979), 16–17.
75. 75. Belasco et al., “Congressional Restrictions,” 2.
76. 76. Willard J. Webb and Walter S. Poole, History of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: The Joint Chiefs of Staff and the War in Vietnam 1971–1973 (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 2007), 355.
77. 77. James H. Willibanks, Abandoning Vietnam: How America Left and South Vietnam Lost Its War (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 2001), 214.
78. 78. Willibanks, Abandoning Vietnam, 216.
79. 79. Franck and Weisband, 27–33.
80. 80. Willibanks, Abandoning Vietnam, 267.
81. 81. Arnold R. Issacs, Without Honor: Defeat in Vietnam and Cambodia (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1983), 411, 435.
82. 82. “The President’s State of the Union Address,” January 29, 2002. http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/01/print/20020129-11.html
83. 83. For details on the manner in which the Bush administration rallied domestic support for the Iraq war, see, for example, Jon Western, “The War over Iraq: Selling War to the American Public,” in American Foreign Policy and the Politics of Fear: Threat Inflation since 9/11, eds. Jane K. Cramer and A. Trevor Thrall (New York: Routledge, 2009), 153–173; Chaim Kaufmann “Threat Inflation and the Failure of the Marketplace of Ideas: The Selling of the Iraq War,” International Security 29, no. 1 (Summer 2004): 5–48.
84. 84. Jeffrey M. Jones, “Public’s Evaluation of Iraq War Grows More Negative: Americans Still Divided over Decision to Go to War,” Gallup News Service, December 22, 2004.
85. 85. Jones, “Public’s Evaluation of Iraq.”
86. 86. From an ABC News/Washington Post Poll that asked, “All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not?” Results accessed at http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq3.htm
87. 87. Ann Scott Tyson, “Pentagon Cites Spike in Violence in Iraq: Averting Civil War Called Goal” Washington Post, September 2, 2006. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/nation/nationalsecurity/index.html
88. 88. Bob Woodward, The War Within: A Secret White House History, 2006–2008 (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2008), 161–162
89. 89. Adam Nagourney, “Democratic Leaders Ask Bush to Redeploy Troops in Iraq,” New York Times, August 1, 2006.
90. 90. Robin Toner and Kate Zernike, “Congress Erupts in Partisan Fight over War In Iraq” New York Times, June 16, 2006.
91. 91. “America Votes 2006—The Midterm Elections,” CNN.com. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/
92. 92. Woodward, The War Within, 312.
93. 93. “Bush: ‘We Need to Change Our Strategy in Iraq,’” CNN.com, January 11, 2007. http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/01/10/bush.transcript/index.html
94. 94. For full details on the development and objectives of the surge, see Ricks, The Gamble, and Peter D. Feaver, “The Right to Be Right: Civil-Military Relations and the Iraq Surge Decision,” International Security 35, no. 4 (Spring 2011): 87–125.
95. 95. Frank Newport and Joseph Carroll, “Opposition to Troop Increase Unchanged after Bush’s Iraq Speech: Americans Divided on Issue of Congressional Block on Funds for Increase,” Gallup News Service, January 16, 2007. http://www.gallup.com/poll/26137/opposition-troop-increase-unchanged-after-bushs-iraq-speech.aspx
96. 96. Thomas Mann, Molly Reynolds, and Peter Hoey, “Is Congress on the Mend?” New York Times, April 28, 2007.
97. 97. Biden: S.Con.Res.2; Warner: S. Con. Res.5; Levin Bill: S.470.
98. 98. Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “A Symbolic Vote Is a Sign of Bitter Debates to Come,” New York Times, February 17, 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/17/washington/17assess.html
99. 99. Stolberg, “A Symbolic Vote.”
100. 100. Robin Toner and Michael Luo, “House Democrats Unveil Measure Denouncing Iraq Buildup,” New York Times February 13, 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/13/washington/13cong.html
101. 101. Jeff Zeleny and Ronin Toner, “Democrats Rally Behind a Pullout from Iraq in ’08,” New York Times, March 9, 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/09/washington/09cong.html
102. 102. “Bush Vetoes Iraq War Spending Bill,” Fox News May 1, 2007. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,269393,00.html#ixzz1LWG73ekm
103. 103. Woodward, The War Within, 349–350, 358–359; Stolberg, “A Symbolic Vote.”
104. 104. “Congress Will Fund Iraq War if Bush Uses Veto, Obama Says” USA Today April 1, 2007.http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-04-01-obama_N.htm
105. 105. Carl Hulse and Jeff Zeleny, “Congress and Bush Striving for Compromise on War Funds,” New York Times, May 18, 2007.
106. 106. “Full Text of Letter to the President,” January 5, 2007. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=2773863&page=1
107. 107. Ricks, The Gamble, 79.
108. 108. Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Leslie H. Gelb, “Unity Through Autonomy in Iraq,” New York Times, May 1, 2006.
109. 109. Glenn Kessler, “White House Postponing Loss of Iraq, Biden Says,” Washington Post, January 5, 2007. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/04/AR2007010401525.html
110. 110. “Meet the Press Transcript for Jan. 7, 2007.” http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16456248/page/3/
111. 111. Carl Hulse and Jeff Zeleny, “Senate Rejects Renewed Effort to Debate Iraq,” New York Times, February 18, 2007.
112. 112. Sarah Wheaton, “Iraq Quotes From the Hill,” New York Times, January 10, 2007.
113. 113. Ricks, The Gamble, 249–251.
114. 114. George W. Bush, Decision Points (New York: Crown, 2010), 355.
115. 115. Fred Barnes, “How Bush Decided on the Surge,” Weekly Standard, February 4, 2008; Woodward, The War Within, 206.
116. 116. Woodward, The War Within, 358–359.
117. 117. Ibid., 370.
118. 118. Alec Gallup, ed., Gallup Poll: Public Opinion 2008 (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2009), 256–257.
119. 119. R. Chuck Mason, “U.S.-Iraq Withdrawal/Status of Forces Agreement: Issues for Congressional Oversight,” CRS Report for Congress, July 12, 2009, Summary Section.
120. 120. Mason, “U.S.-Iraq Withdrawal/Status of Forces Agreement,” 10.
121. 121. “Remarks by the President in Address to the Nation on the End of Combat Operations in Iraq” August 31, 2010 http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2010/08/31/remarks-president-address-nation-end-combat-operations-iraq