The true success of nations at recent Olympic Games: comparing actual versus expected medal success

Abstract

Which nations were most ‘successful’, when accounting for their resources, at recent Olympic Games? It seems reasonable to assess this in terms of the number of medals won compared to how many nations are expected to win relative to their resources?. Data were collected for those countries competing in the Sydney, Athens and Beijing Olympics. National statistics used were: population size, gross domestic product (GDP), the human development index (HDI) and Gini, a measure of inequality of wealth. Predictive models of medal success were generated using linear regression. Three were considered: population size, GDP and population size+HDI. Relative success was calculated as either the absolute or proportional difference in predicted versus actual medal success. The present study serves primarily to provide the ‘alternate’ medal tables derived from these calculations and incorporates concise discussion on the results to stimulate debate. These tables sometimes include nations towards the top that might not otherwise be considered to have had successful recent Olympics.

Notes

¹ Bernard and Busse, ‘Who Wins the Olympic Games’; Mitchell and Stewart, ‘A Competitive Index’.

² Lui and Suen, ‘Men, Money, and Medals’.

³ For example, Tucker and Dugas, ‘302 Golds’; Keefer, ‘What Cost a Medal at the Olymipcs?’

⁴ Packard and Boardman, ‘The Use of Percentages’.

⁵ Cf. Bernard and Busse, ‘Who Wins the Olympic Games’.

⁶ Lui and Suen, ‘Men, Money, and Medals’.

⁷ Rosen, ‘The Economics of Superstars’.

⁸ For example, Eason, ‘America Refuses to Accept’.

⁹ Levine, ‘Why do Countries Win Olympic Medals?’

¹⁰ For example, Peak Performance, ‘The Rise and Rise of China's Athletes’; BBC Sport, ‘Brown Pays Tribute to GB Success’.

¹¹ Cf. Lui and Suen, ‘Men, Money, and Medals’.

¹² www.wikipedia.org.

¹³ Levin, ‘Why do Countries Win Olympic Medals?’; Riorda, ‘The Impact of Communism on Sport’.

¹⁴ Kong and de Heer, ‘Anthropometric, Gait and Strength Characteristics’.

¹⁵ Larsen, ‘Kenyan Dominance in Distance Running’.

¹⁶ Hamilton, ‘East African Running Dominance’.

¹⁷ Kong and de Heer, ‘Anthropometric, Gait and Strength Characteristics’.

¹⁸ Bernard and Busse, ‘Who Wins the Olympic Games’; Lui and Suen, ‘Men, Money, and Medals’.

¹⁹ The Free Library, ‘Olympics’.

²⁰ Riordan, ‘The Impact of Communism on Sport’.

²¹ Mitchell and Stewart, ‘A Competitive Index for International Sport’.

²² Falter and Perignon, ‘Demand for Football’.

²³ Bernard and Busse, ‘Who Wins the Olympic Games’.

²⁴ Bernard and Busse, ‘Who Wins the Olympic Games’

²⁵ Riordan, ‘The Impact of Communism on Sport’.

²⁶ Phillips, ‘Toward an Explanation of Racial Variation’; Ama et al. ‘Skeletal Muscle Characteristics’.

²⁷ Lui and Suen, ‘Men, Money, and Medals’.

²⁸ Lui and Suen, ‘Men, Money, and Medals’

²⁹ For example, Doyle, ‘Kirsty Coventry Prepares for Olympic Gold’.