Maternal and child mortality indicators across 187 countries of the world: Converging or diverging

Abstract

This study reassessed the progress achieved since 1990 in maternal and child mortality indicators to test whether the progress is converging or diverging across countries worldwide. The convergence process is examined using standard parametric and non-parametric econometric models of convergence. The results of absolute convergence estimates reveal that progress in maternal and child mortality indicators is diverging for the entire period of 1990–2010 [maternal mortality ratio (MMR) − β = .00033, p < .574; neonatal mortality rate (NNMR) − β = .04367, p < .000; post-neonatal mortality rate (PNMR) − β = .02677, p < .000; under-five mortality rate (U5MR) − β = .00828, p < .000)]. In the recent period, such divergence is replaced with convergence for MMR but diverged for all the child mortality indicators. The results of Kernel density estimate reveal considerable reduction in divergence of MMR for the recent period; however, the Kernel density distribution plots show more than one ‘peak’ which indicates the emergence of convergence clubs based on their mortality levels. For child mortality indicators, the Kernel estimates suggest that divergence is in progress across the countries worldwide but tended to converge for countries with low mortality levels. A mere progress in global averages of maternal and child mortality indicators among a global cross-section of countries does not warranty convergence unless there is a considerable reduction in variance, skewness and range of change.

Keywords:

• maternal mortality
• child mortality
• convergence
• divergence
• world countries

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Shawn F. Dorius and Christopher Wilson for their valuable suggestions on convergence theory and metrics. We also thank Lalit Dandona for his useful comments on earlier drafts of this paper. This paper earlier presented at 27th IUSSP meeting where it received valuable comments from John Cleland and Alan Lopez. However, the views expressed in the paper purely belong to the authors.