Second demographic transition or aspirations in transition: an exploratory analysis of lowest-low fertility in Kolkata, India

ABSTRACT

Fertility transition occurred during the 1970s in Kolkata (erstwhile Calcutta), capital of the state of West Bengal, India, and has remained persistently at the low fertility level. Fertility rate in Kolkata attained its lowest-low level in the beginning of the present century. It currently has the lowest fertility rate (TFR 1.2) in India. This could be a case of second demographic transition (SDT) or pertains to changing dynamics in childbearing, childrearing, and/or aspirations for children. Using primary data of 600 couples (1200 individuals) and employing quantitative and qualitative methods, this study found that constraints in childbearing and childrearing; and aspirations for children have a strong negative and significant effect on second and higher order childbearing among couples, particularly among women. In our study there was no strong evidence of voluntary childlessness as well as decline in the importance of marriage, family and children as posited by SDT. Thus we argue that SDT might have to be redefined for a developing country context.

KEYWORDS:

• Lowest-low fertility
• second demographic transition
• constraints in childbearing and rearing
• aspirations for children

Acknowledgement

The research was conducted at the Asia Research Centre (ARC), London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) when the author was the Sir Ratan Tata Post-Doctoral Fellow during the year 2014–15. The author gratefully acknowledges the critical and constructive comments of Dr. Ruth Kattumuri, Co-Director of ARC, LSE, while carrying out the research. The author is grateful to the Research Investigators (Subhojit, Ankita, Soumayjit, Debaki, Humaira and Mir) for their invaluable help in data collection. The author expresses gratitude to Dr. Nanadini Ghosh of Institute of Development Studies Kolkata (IDSK) for her support in conducting qualitative investigations. The author appreciated the help of Director, colleagues and support staff of ARC, LSE and IDSK while conducting the research. Transcriptions of FGDs and IDIs by Pragna Paramita Mondol are also thankfully acknowledged. Assistance provided by the Chairman, Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC) during the field surveys was of immense help. Finally, the author expresses deep regard to all the study participants for their readiness in participation in the study.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.