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Abstract
This article presents the demographic window in Mongolia and discusses the implications of different population policies for demographic development. Based on four different fertility scenarios, the development of future working age population (WAP), school-age population (SAP), and elderly population are examined, focusing on the economic and social challenges for Mongolia. It is argued that population policy could play an important role if policy-makers want to prolong the demographic window and the benefits of better demographic conditions to sustain economic and social development. This issue is of importance since the majority of developing countries are currently experiencing fertility decline which is opening their demographic window.
Acknowledgements
The author is grateful to Michel Oris, Philippe Wanner, Raffael Himmelsbach, A. Solongo, Ts. Bolormaa, and two anonymous reviewers for their corrections and thoughtful comments on earlier versions of this article.
Notes
1. Demographic bonus, demographic dividend, or demographic window of opportunities are the other terms used in the literature to refer to the same concept.
2. Moreover, current official retirement age in Mongolia is set at 55 for females and 60 for males.
3. For instance, in rural areas, where population in the majority is self-employed, the retirement age is not definite.
4. For additional and detailed Asian experiences, see the Asian Population Studies (2005) volume 1, number 2.
5. In 1989, 2.8 per cent of the population (56,000) consisted of foreign nationals. In 2000, the percentage drops to 0.3 (8100). Between the same dates, the number of ethnic Kazakhs decreased by about 20,000, passing from 5.9 per cent of total population to 4.3; many have migrated to Kazakhstan in the early 1990s (see NSO Citation2001, chapter 4).
6. As a comparison, in 2005, the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita reached US$ 2107 (World Bank, World Development Indicators online). The annual average wage is estimated at 101.2 thousands tugrugs (NSO Citation2006). An easy way to reckon the exchange rate is that 1000 tugrugs is approximately the equivalent of 1US$ (according to the Bank of Mongolia, US$1 = 1,172 tugrugs as on 29 February 2008).
7. See various editions over the past two years of the UB Post and The Mongol Messenger (weekly English-written newspapers edited and published in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia) and documents of the Ministry of Social Welfare and Labour of Mongolia.
8. The GER divides the number of pupils enrolled in a given level of education regardless of age by the population of the age group which officially corresponds to the given level of education at the start of the academic year.
9. With continuing fertility decline, Scenario 3 leads to a decline in both number and proportion of the SAP; Scenario 4 presents more oscillations with a momentary increase in both number and proportion of the SAP; and Scenarios 1 and 2 are in intermediary position with, for Scenario 1, an temporary increase in the number of the SAP accompanied by a transitory stagnation of its proportion, and, for Scenario 2, a slight temporary increase in the number of SAP with no effect on the decline of its proportion.
10. However, for example, there is no evidence of a relation between higher salary and teacher's quality (Kelley 1996, cited in Ahlburg & Jensen Citation2001, p. 239).
