Extreme values of storm surge elevation in Hangzhou Bay

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a statistical analysis of storm surge in Hangzhou Bay, where storm surge is known taking place frequently. This study utilises measurement data taken the period of 1974–2006. The Pearson-III-Pareto distribution model was used first to fit with extreme values based on these measurement data and was then compared with Gumbel, Weibull, Pearson-III, Pareto distribution functions for estimations of extreme storm surge values correspondingly to 100-, 200-, 400-, 500-, 700- and 1000-year return periods. The predicted values of storm surge elevation in the 1000-year return period of the new model are 2.179% higher than the Weibull distribution and 3.546% lower than the Pearson-III distribution. Expectedly, the proposed Pearson-III-Pareto distribution is a more reasonable for presenting the statistical characteristic of extreme values of storm surge.

KEYWORDS:

• Extreme value theory
• storm surge elevation
• threshold
• Pearson-III-Pareto distribution

Acknowledgement

The authors would like to expression appreciation to the colleagues for their assistance, guidance and encouragement.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes on contributors

Guilin Liu received the bachelor’s and Ph.D. degree in Coastal and Offshore Engineering from Ocean University of China. He is the author of three books, more than 20 journal and conference articles. His research interests include: joint probability for environmental loads of coastal and ocean engineering, hydrodynamic research in marine engineering, and digital intelligent construction in coastal and ocean engineering.

Zhikang Gao is currently pursuing the master’s degree from College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China, since 2017. He received the bachelor’s degree from Changsha University of Science and Technology. His research interests include joint probability analysis of extreme ocean environmental elements, hydrodynamic research in marine engineering and fluid dynamics.

Baiyu Chen received his M.S. degree in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, and M.S. and B.S. degree in Civil Engineering from University of California Berkeley. He is the author of two books, more than 10 journal and conference articles. His research field covers multiple disciplines, with focus on intelligent transportation system control, machine learning and risk control.

Hanliang Fu received his doctor degree from School of Management, Xi’an University of architecture and technology, Shaanxi Xi’an, China, in 2017. Now he is working in Xi’an University of architecture and technology as a post doctor. His interests include big data, environmental management and bibliography.

Song Jiang received the M.S. degrees in mine engineering from the School of Management, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Shaanxi, China in 2012, He is currently pursuing a Ph.D. at School of Management, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Shaanxi, China. He is the author of two books, more than 20 articles. His research interests include mining system engineering, big data and mining management. He has a strong interest in the exploration of interdisciplinary fields of computers and mine.

Liping Wang received the Ph.D. in Coastal and Offshore Engineering from Ocean University of China. She is currently a Professor of Mathematical Sciences, Ocean University of China. She is the author of two books, more than 20 articles. Her research field covers multiple disciplines, with focus on analysis of statistical characteristics of random ocean wave, forecast warning of storm surge, application of mathematical model in Marine and financial engineering and proposal of big data products and solutions.

Ge Wang received his Ph.D degree from the University of Tokyo, and M.S. degree from the Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He is a SNAME Fellow. Dr. Wang has published 130 papers in journals and conferences. His research field covers multiple disciplines, with focus on design and analyses of marine structures.

Zhengshou Chen was born in Qingdao, Shandong, China in 1979. He received the B.S. and M.S. degrees in costal and offshore engineering from Ocean University of China, Qingdao, in 2002 and 2005, and the Ph.D. degree in naval architecture and ocean engineering from Mokpo National University, Mokpo, Korea, in 2010. In 2010, he was a Research Assistant with the Medium-sized Shipbuilding Industry Center of Korea. From 2010–2012, he has been an Assistant Professor with the Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Zhejiang Ocean University. Since 2013, he has been a Professor with the Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Zhejiang Ocean University. He is the author of about 50 articles, and holds more than 40 patents. His research interests include signal processing, design and analysis of slender marine structures. He is an editorial board member of the journal International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering. Prof. Chen was a recipient of the Best Paper for China Doctor Forum Award in 2008, and Best Thesis for RINA Korean Branch in 2010.

ORCID

Zhikang Gao http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4560-2171

Additional information

Funding

This research was funded by the NSFC–Shandong Joint Fund ‘Study on the multidimensional discrete variables compound extremum distribution model and its engineering application’ (No. ZR2019MEE050), the NSFC–Shandong Joint Fund ‘Study on the Disaster-Causing Mechanism and Disaster Prevention Countermeasures of Multi-Source Storm Surges’ (No. U1706226), and the Program of Promotion Plan for Postgraduates’ Educational Quality ‘Paying More Attention to the Study on the Cultivation Mode of Mathematical Modeling for Engineering Postgraduates’ (No. HDJG18007), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41776105).