Spending, canvassing and electoral success in marginal constituencies: England and Scotland in 2017

ABSTRACT

Substantial evidence shows that candidates’ and parties’ performances in constituencies at UK general elections are influenced by the intensity of their local campaigns, but that evidence is almost invariably based on analyses of voting across all constituencies. Most constituencies are unlikely to change hands, however. This paper explores whether the impact of spending varies according to seat marginality and analyses the pattern of spending and canvassing in the 123 Labour-Conservative marginals in England and all 59 constituencies in Scotland. The results are consistent with expectations: campaigning and canvassing matters most where campaigning and canvassing should matter most.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 The data on constituency campaign spending at recent UK General Elections are compiled and published by the Electoral Commission: https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/candidate-election-spending.

2 This very large survey – an unweighted total of 31,197 respondents – covers all British constituencies with an average of just under 50 in each.

3 For details of the questions, go to https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-objects/panel-study-data/.

4 Some of the contact by phone may be through random dialling of numbers and contact in the street may involve a serendipitous meeting between a canvasser and a voter. We exclude the percentage contacted by letter or leaflet for two reasons. First, unfortunately this confounds two separate forms of canvassing. Many candidates circulate leaflets to a substantial proportion of the local electorate using the provision that allows them to send one item through the postal system for free; these provide information but little more. Letters to voters are increasingly personalized (and in many cases sent from the party’s national or regional headquarters rather than from the local candidate) and are part of the careful targeting of potential supporters in marginal seats, but the nature of the data makes it impossible to separate out this type of canvassing from the distribution of leaflets. Secondly, since most of the money spent on local campaigns goes on the printing of leaflets, there is strong collinearity between the amount spent and the percentage of respondents receiving a leaflet.

5 Fourteen Labour-Conservative marginals in Wales were not included because of the complexity introduced by the presence of Plaid Cymru candidates.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Ron Johnston

Ron Johnston is a professor in the School of Geographical Sciences at the University of Bristol.

Charles Pattie

Charles Pattie is a professor in the Department of Politics at the University of Sheffield.

Todd Hartman

Todd Hartman is a senior lecturer in quantitative social science in the Sheffield Methods Institute at the University of Sheffield. They have produced a number of recent studies on campaigning at British general elections and its impact.